SOUTHEAST-ASIAN SECURITY INTO THE 21ST-CENTURY - EMERGING PATTERNS AND CHALLENGES

By the early 21st century, Southeast Asia's security situation will ex hibit three principal trends: (a) ASEAN will have expanded its members hip from seven to nine (or ten) members; (b) the region's shift from i nternal defense to external security will be bolstered by high technol ogy weapons purchases, including missile-armed frigates, small helicop ter aircraft. carriers, submarines, and upgraded F-16s and F-18s; and (c) a gradual enlargement of ASEAN responsibilities will occur toward a functional security regime in the South China Sea. Each of these tre nds is controversial and is subject to opposition or complication both within and from outside the region. And these practices may retard th ese governments' admission to or, if admitted, their full absorption i nto, the association. Secondly, regional weapons purchases, while not technically constituting ''arms races,'' cause anxieties among various Southeast Asian governments. Finally, ASEAN has been slow to move bey ond forums, workshops, and confidence-building measures to actual func tionally integrated external security measures. United States policy t owards Southeast Asia's trends is correct to emphasize democracy, mark et economics, and external security, However, US policy finds itself a t odds with a majority of current ASEAN governments (if not all the pe ople within those societies) which are ecr looking the other way on hu man rights violations, and are uncomfortable, so far, with external se curity missions. Nevertheless, US policy has some leverage: Washington can withhold investments and credits to the most egregious violators. And, by virtue of the US military presence in Southeast Asia and Amer ican security guarantees, regional governments want Washington to cont inue underwriting Southeast Asia's external security while Chinese pol itical-military expansion continues.