ENERGY SECURITY COOPERATION IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC

Economic development is inseparable from energy supply, and along with the advance towards industrialization and urbanization in the Asia Pa cific, the regional demand for energy increases. Oil, the second-gener ation fuel after coal, has provided energy for Asian Pacific economic development, and has played a crucial role in the regional economic li fe. As the fastest-growing region in the world, the Asia Pacific ranks the first globally in oil demand growth. The present oil glut in worl d energy market and the low oil price fluctuation are short-term pheno mena. Oven the long term, the global oil market will change from surpl us to deficiency, and oil prices will gradually go up. This is mostly because world oil production is approaching its highest level and the majority of new oilfields with rich reserves have already been verifie d. The world will have produced half of its ultimate reserves before t he end of the century. It is estimated that global oil depletion will emerge within the first half of the next century, and that another oil shock seems certain. ''Unlike the previous shocks, it will not be a s hort-term supply interruption, but will herald a historic discontinuit y with profound implications for both the oil industry and Oil consume rs.'' The oil production in Asian Pacific countries is insufficient fo r self-consumption, and oil imports are imperative; the Middle East wi ll continue to be their main oil supplier. The entry of China and ASEA N countries into the ranks of net oil importers will have tremendous i mpact on global and regional oil supplies and market conditions. The i ntensity and complexity of energy tension in the Asian Pacific are dev elopment of which the region is not fully aware and for which it is no t well prepared. The growing, gap between energy supply and demand in the region could easily have destabilizing international and regional consequences and would strain relations among the Asian Pacific countr ies. The strife for marine energy resources and the competition for Mi ddle East oil to secure a stable supply will be acute, and the guarant ee of the sea-lane security will increase in significance. The region' s projected scale of nuclear power generation commitment also raises s erious concern over proliferation dangers. The Asian Pacific energy si tuation requires that energy security cooperation be put on the region al policy agenda. As Asian Pacific security cooperation has become a m atter of common concern in the region, energy security cooperation mig ht become one aspect of Asian Pacific security cooperation and could s erve as a catalyst for it.