RUSSIAN POLITICS AND FOREIGN-POLICY AFTER THE ELECTIONS - IMPLICATIONS FOR KOREA AND EAST-ASIA

Recent parliamentary and presidential elections in Russia, while not p erfectly democratic, provide evidence that Russia is making progress i n consolidating its nascent democracy. While the realist approach to i nternational relations would argue that this should make little differ ence in Russia's foreign policy, theorists more persuaded by the liber al interpretation of world politics would argue that a democratic Russ ia could be expected to behave less aggressively than either its Sovie t predecessor or a possible authoritarian successor. This paper argues for the validity of the liberal perspective. Russia's internal politi cal developments - its chaotic democratization, combined with pressing , long-term economic, social and demographic problems - make external aggression unlikely in the near future. Russia's internal divisions ca n be expected to widen over the next decade, making it difficult for a ny leader to conduct effective domestic and foreign policies, regardle ss of their political orientation or ability. Russian politicians acro ss the political spectrum have become more nationalistic in reaction t o the loss of the Soviet external and internal empires, but nationalis t rhetoric is not likely to be expressed through aggressive or neoimpe rialist activities in East Asia or on the Korean peninsula. Popular di sgust with the Chechnya operation suggests the Russian public would be intolerant of foreign adventurism, and will likely constrain costly f oreign policies. Economic stringencies likewise argue for a cautious f oreign policy. Russia is pursuing an active, if somewhat sporadic and uncoordinated diplomacy designed to maintain good political and econom ic relations with all Asian countries. Russian foreign policy is far f rom unitary in implementation. Russia's decentralization, the opening up of previously closed areas in the Far East and Siberia, and Moscow' s neglect of its eastern periphery, have encouraged the eastern provin ces to conduct their own policies toward china, Japan, and Korea. The center's interests and goals often do not harmonize with local priorit ies. The emergence of sub-national foreign policies, together with bur eaucratic infighting and an inability to define Russian national inter ests, exacerbates the disarray in Russian foreign policy. Russian lead ers clearly want to restore their country to a place of prominence in world affairs. However, Russia's political efforts to be accorded grea t-power status in East Asia and elsewhere have been undermined by poli tical instability, deteriorating military power, ant! the continued we akness of Russia's economy. Russia, or the eastern region of Russia, m ay some day play the role of a respected major power in the Asia-Pacif ic, but this does not appear likely in the near future.