FACTORS UNDERLYING TRANSPORTATION CO2 EMISSIONS IN THE USA - A DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS

Over the last two decades the contribution of transportation to total energy use and CO2 emissions in the U.S.A. increased in absolute and r elative terms. This paper develops a decomposition scheme which helps to identify the magnitude and the relative effects of the various fact ors underlying these trends in the U.S. transportation energy use and CO2 emissions between 1970 and 1991. This decomposition scheme has the advantages of simplicity, exhaustiveness, lucidity of interpretation, and intuitive appeal. Its application to U.S. transportation data rev eals that the growth in people's propensity to travel, population, and gross domestic product (GDP) were the three most important factors dr iving up U.S. transportation energy use and CO2 emissions in the 1970- 1991 period. The effects of changes in modal structure were smaller, b ut not trivial. The actual increases of U.S. transportation energy use and CO2 emissions were substantially less than the sum of the effects of the above four factors due to improvements in transportation energ y efficiency and decreases in the transportation intensity of GDP. Inc reases in U.S. transportation energy use and CO2 emissions resulted fr om developments in freight transportation rather than from passenger t ransportation in the 1970-1991 period. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.