ENERGY USE AND CARBON EMISSIONS FROM FREIGHT IN 10 INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES - AN ANALYSIS OF TRENDS FROM 1973 TO 1992

This paper reviews trends in freight activity and energy use in 10 ind ustrialized countries from 1973 to 1992. We review changes in modes us ed to carry freight and analyze changes in the role of trucks. We carr y out a decomposition of changes in freight energy use to identify the relative contribution of activity, modal structure, and energy intens ity to the rise in energy use observed in each country. A similar anal ysis is carried out for carbon emissions, one of the many environmenta l problems associated with freight. Our three major findings are: (1) domestic freight volumes rose, with trucks carrying most of the increm ent, in almost every country we studied, (2) freight energy use and as sociated carbon emissions increased markedly and are rising vis-a-vis those associated with passenger travel in the 10 industrialized countr ies studied, and (3) energy use for freight will continue to rise unle ss there are substantial reductions in the energy intensities of truck freight. We conclude that restraining or reducing emissions from frei ght will be particularly difficult because the factors that increased energy use and emissions for freight in the past are still important t o raising energy use for freight. Noting that emissions from most othe r sectors have either fallen or grown less than freight, we discuss te chnologies and policies that might lead to restraint in this sector in the future.