EDSSF - DECISION-SUPPORT SYSTEM (DSS) FOR ELECTRICITY PEAK-LOAD FORECASTING

Electricity authorities in the UAE have not been successful in develop ing reliable and accurate models of system peak load. In this study, w e develop a time-series-based decision-support system that integrates data management, model base management, simulation, graphic display, a nd statistical analysis to provide near-optimal forecasting models. Th e model base includes a variety of time-series techniques, such as exp onential smoothing, Box-Jenkins (BJ), and dynamic regression. The syst em produces short-term forecasts (one year ahead) by analyzing the beh avior of monthly peak loads. The performance of the DSS is validated t hrough a comparison with results suggested by econometricians. (C) 199 7 Elsevier Science Ltd.