USING SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION INFORMATION FOR DETERMINING CORN AND SORGHUM PROFIT-MAXIMIZING INPUT LEVELS IN EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS

Research into Southern Oscillation (SO) phenomena and related sea surf ace temperature is providing promising results concerning the ability to improve long-range climate forecasts. This study asks whether SO ev ent information would be of value to Texas corn (Zea mays L.) and sorg hum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] producers. Simple ordinary least squ ares regressions suggest that an El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) e vent increases preseason rainfall by approximately 3 in., whereas, a c old SO event decreases rainfall by 4 in. These extreme phases appeared to have no impact on growing season precipitation. Economic results i ndicate that SO information is more valuable for corn than sorghum pro ducers. The value of SO information ranged from $1 to $2/acre for corn production, depending on price. For sorghum, use of SO information ha d no value.