ON THE DETERMINANTS OF THE SUCCESS OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS - AN EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS

Theory: Theories predicting the success of economic sanctions are test ed on the universe of sanction episodes from 1914 to 1989. Hypotheses: The probability of success depends upon the cost to the target nation , the extent of trade linkages between target and sender, the stabilit y of the target, the amount of time sanctions are in force, and whethe r financial sanctions are utilized. Method: Data are analyzed using lo gistic regression. Results: The factors affecting success depend upon the goals of the sending nations. When that goal is simply destabiliza tion, the principal determinant of success is the initial stability of the target. For other goals, the use of financial sanctions is most e ffective. We also find evidence of a modest downward trend over time i n the relative effectiveness of sanctions in the latter category.