PARTICIPATION RATES, SOCIOECONOMIC-CLASS BIASES, AND CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS - A CROSSVALIDATION

Theory: Recently, Leighley and Nagler (1992) presented evidence indica ting that class biases in voter turnout remained relatively stable acr oss presidential elections from 1960 through 1988. Nevertheless, few i nvestigations test for class biases (or the stability of class biases) in midterm congressional elections. Given that presidential elections are such high-intensity affairs (Campbell 1993) some lower-class citi zens likely participate in presidential elections as a result of the s heer salience of the campaign but may be less likely to be mobilized i n the lower intensity midterm elections. Consequently, we might expect to find evidence of an increase in class bias in the shrinking congre ssional electorate rather than in the shrinking presidential electorat e. Hypothesis: Class biases in voter turnout have not substantially in creased since the 1960s. Methods: A demographic model of voter turnout is used in order to isolate the marginal impact of income on voter tu rnout across election years using the American National Election Studi es 1958-94 and the Current Population Surveys 1974-94. Results: While class biases in any specific election are great (higher socioeconomic groups comprise the majority of voters) such biases appear to have rem ained relatively stable over time. The declining rates of turnout sinc e the early 1960s have occurred among all segments of society, not jus t among the lower classes.