PSYCHOMETRIC PREDICTION OF RECIVIDISM - UTILITY OF THE RISK NEEDS INVENTORY

The efficacy of psychometric measures of recidivism is an important is sue. Accordingly, the present study examines: (1) the predictive (crit erion-related) validity of the Risk Needs Inventory (RNI); (2) whether RNI scores alone are better predictors than are scores moderated by C ommunity Corrections Officers (professional override principle); and ( 3) whether inclusion of age and marital status as independent variable s improves predictive validity. It was found that RNI total and risk c ategory scores for both the unadjusted and override conditions signifi cantly predicted both number and severity of reoffences for in-program and total recidivism measures. Age predicted number and severity of r eoffences (inversely), but generally did not add significantly to the variance accounted for by the RNI items. While the RNI appears to have some utility, the prediction of recidivism remains a complex psychome tric issue. However, it is likely that use of the RNI provides a more structured/objective assessment of recidivism risk. Although the varia nce accounted for is small (8-15%), nonetheless, use of the RNI result s in correct classification of the majority of offenders. In addition, use of professional override would appear to be essential in order to differentiate between the reoffending behaviours of medium and high r isk groups.