DEMOGRAPHY OF HIV AIDS

This paper has two goals. First, it provides an account of the current state of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, with special emphasis on the situatio n in the developing world, where the bulk of new cases is arising, and where the effects of the epidemic are likely to be most devastating. An attempt is made to evaluate forecasts and projections made during t he past 10 to 15 years, and to examine the reasons for their relativel y unsatisfactory performance. The second goal is to analyze the relati on between the known characteristics of the epidemic, and the properti es of the various demographic and epidemiological models that have bee n used to represent the spread of the virus. Some fault lines in these models are identified, and ways to improve them and apply them more e ffectively in the future outlined.