PREDICTORS OF 7-YEAR CHANGES IN EXERCISE BLOOD-PRESSURE - EFFECTS OF SMOKING, PHYSICAL-FITNESS AND PULMONARY-FUNCTION

Background The health status of 1999 apparently healthy men, aged 40-5 9 years, was ascertained after 16 years, We found that their systolic blood pressure during an ergometer exercise test added prognostic info rmation beyond that from their blood pressure at rest concerning total cardiovascular mortality and mortality from myocardial infarction, Ob jective To determine predictors of the change in systolic blood pressu re at rest during 7 years and of the change in the prognostically impo rtant peak exercise systolic blood pressure at 600 kilopondmetres/min during 7 years, Methods Predictors of the changes in blood pressures w ere investigated in 1393 middle-aged men who had been healthy without drug treatment for chronic disease or hypertension for 7 years, Twelve potential independent predictors were investigated, Results Previous blood pressures, age and body mass index were independent predictors a nd could explain 18% of the change in systolic blood pressure at rest over 7 years, For systolic blood pressure at 600 kilopondmetres/min al so smoking was associated with a rise whereas a high body mass index, physical fitness and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (all P < 0.001) w ere associated with lower blood pressure, explaining 19% of the variab ility, Conclusions Beyond a relatively strong tracking of blood pressu res and the expected effect of age, smoking is associated with a 7-yea r rise in exercise systolic blood pressure whereas relatively higher b ody mass, physical fitness and pulmonary function are associated with lower exercise systolic blood pressure after 7 years in middle-aged he althy men.