REELECTION CONSTITUENCIES AND THE POLITICS OF SUPREME-COURT CONFIRMATION VOTES

Previous research on the affects of constituency preferences on senato rs' voting behavior on judicial confirmations has been limited to geog raphic conceptions of constituency. We extend this literature by consi dering the effects of reelection constituencies. Using exit poll data from the 1986, 1988, and 1990 general elections, we estimate the perce ntage of each senator's reelection constituency composed of African Am ericans and then use these estimates to reconsider the confirmation vo te for Justice Clarence Thomas. Our results show modest but significan t improvements in fit and predictive capabilities over previous models , and they highlight the cross pressures facing many senators in this case. These findings suggest that more precise estimations of constitu ency composition can help illuminate the factors influencing legislato rs' voting behavior.