THE LANGUAGE OF CHANCE

Prior to 1654, the accepted date of the birth of the probability calcu lus, the publication of probabilistic calculations was very spotty. Th e few calculations that have been made are reviewed in David (1962), C oumet (1965), Hald (1990), Kendall (1956), Schneider (1988), and Todhu nter (1865). In view of the paucity of the publication record, authors such as Hacking (1975) have argued that modern concepts of probabilit y did not exist before 1654. Other authors have speculated about what held up the development of the probability calculus. We examine the us e and context of what in modern usage are now considered to be probabi listic words. These are words such as lots, chance and odds like twent y to one. The examination of the English literature leads one to belie ve that knowledge of an elementary probability calculus was present in the culture well before 1654. Simple probabilities were calculated pr obably as early as the time of Chaucer (1340?-1400), Subjective probab ility statements through the quotation of odds and through the descrip tion of fair and false dice were well understood by mid-sixteenth cent ury.