PARTY STRATEGIES IN THE UTTAR-PRADESH ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS, 1996

Given that ethnic identity in the form of caste and religion is not li kely to disappear from national politics, the key question is whether ethnic mobilisation carl be successfully separated from ethnic polaris ation. The last Vidhan Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh present a case where political parries attempted precisely this separation. Although each political party constructed the electorate as a collection of et hnic blocs, and sought to expand its vote share by targeting certain b locs and ignoring others, the identification of the ethnic 'other' tha t has in the last few years proved a highly successful strategy in UP politics was conspicuously absent. Understanding the considerations th at led to this shift in UP may prove useful in illuminating the possib le ways in which caste and religion may affect the trajectory of India n politics at the national level. This article argues that, unfortunat ely, the conditions that led to the moderation of political party beha viour in UP are not stable. An analysis of the election strategies of each of the principal parties or groups of parties reveals that for al l parties, except the Congress, the incentives towards moderation were a product of immediate circumstances that are likely, to change, rath er thaw structural conditions that can be expected to endure.