ASSESSING THE VALIDITY OF THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE

Forecasting is an essential factor in policy formulation and planning. It helps determine the direction of future actions. While a number of forecasting techniques are utilized to forecast the future, it is imp ortant to know just how valid those forecasting techniques can be. The Delphi technique has been called the 'cornerstone of futures research '. This study reports the results of the assessment of the accuracy of the forecasts derived from the Delphi technique. Twenty-five experts in the communication field assessed 24 trends and 17 events in the sta te of Hawaii as of 1991. The expert assessments were then compared wit h the forecasts made by utilizing the Delphi technique 16 years earlie r. The results showed that the trend forecasts were significantly corr elated with the trend assessment. They also showed that the Delphi tec hnique had accurately forecast approximately half the events that coul d be evaluated as of 1991. Results from this study lend support to the use of the Delphi technique in long-range forecasting and reveal some interesting findings in forecasting the developments in communication in Hawaii.