EXPECTED TRENDS IN FISH CONSUMPTION IN ISRAEL AND THEIR IMPACT ON LOCAL PRODUCTION

The main sources of fish supply in Israel are imports, inland aquacult ure, sea and inland water fisheries (lakes) and mariculture. Any chang e affecting one or more of these sources is bound to affect all the bu siness environment and must therefore be taken in account by governmen tal policy makers. The traditional ratio between imports and local pro duction, excluding imports of raw material for processing plants, is 6 0/40%. The population of Israel is expected to grow from 5.5 million i n 1995 to 8.6 million in 2020 (56%). The per capita consumption within the same period is expected to grow from 9.73 kg to 12 kg (23.3%). Ac cordingly, the demand for fish is expected to grow from 53,690 tons in 1995 to 103,060 (92%) in 2020. Fish imports include marine species ca ught mainly in the Atlantic Ocean. These fisheries, as in other parts of the world, have either declined or remained stagnant. As a result o f these trends, the following scenarios can evolve: (a) the supply fro m marine fisheries will decrease, (b) prices of imported fish will ris e, (c) the ratio between imports and local production will change, mos t probably in favor of the latter. Fish supplies to the local market w ill depend more and more on inland aquaculture and on mariculture. In spite of the ever-growing restrictions on water consumption, inland aq uaculture can reach the high production aim of 25,000 and 30,000 tons in years 2010 and 2020 respectively. This projection is based on succe ssful trials to enhance production from a national average yield of 0. 5 kg/m(2) in earthen ponds to 20-60 kg/m(2) in recently developed inte nsive systems. Mariculture is expected to produce over 1,200 tons in 1 996. Without a major breakthrough in the installation of privately own ed cage farms in the Mediterranean it will be difficult to meet the pr ojected supply of 4,000 and 5,700 tons for the years 2010 and 2020.