THE USE OF A LIMITED-AREA CLIMATE MODEL F OR THE ESTIMATION OF VARIATIONS IN EVAPORATION MINUS PRECIPITATION FROM THE CASPIAN SEA DURING THE HOLOCENE

One of the factors that influences the Caspian sea level-paleoclimatic variations in the difference between evaporation and precipitation (E -P) over the sea-was investigated. An interactive limited area model ( LAM) nested in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) was use d for this goal, acid the LAM was implemented for the region 35-55 deg rees N, 30-75 degrees E. Testing this model showed that if was capable of reproducing present climatic characteristics with a reasonable acc uracy (the rms errors for surface temperature, evaporation, acid sensi ble heat flux were found to be -3 degrees C, 0.8 mm/day, and 18 W/m(2) , respectively, and the point-to-paint correlation coefficient was abo ut 0.75). Perpetual simulations (for July and January) revealed that e vaporation minus precipitation (E-P) over the sea in Holocene optima ( at 6 and 9 ky BP (1000 years before present)) was greater than now (by 5 and 9%, respectively). However, these changes can account for, at m ost, 0.5 and 0.8 m decreases in the sea level, respectively, while pal eoclimatic data testify that the sea levels at 6 and 9 ky BP were 6 an d 2 m higher than now. The simulation data showed that the runoff in t he middle and southern Volga River basin had been increased at 6 and 9 ky BP, but this increase had not been considerable enough to account for a 6 m increase in the sea level.