The strong relationship between reduced bone mass and the risk of oste
oporotic fractures has been well established in recently published, pr
ospective studies. As bone mass decreases with advancing age, it seems
logical to assume that a lower peak bone mass contributes to increasi
ng bone fragility and, thus, to the incidence of fractures. However, t
he scarcity of osteoporotic fractures in middle-age suggests that a lo
w peak bone mass might not be the only determinant of the risk of oste
oporosis. The aim of this review is to examine the relationship betwee
n bone mass and the risk of fractures and to determine whether peak bo
ne mass or the subsequent rate of bone loss is more important in deter
mining the ultimate risk of osteoporosis. Such a prediction will have
important implications for the prevention of osteoporosis.