UNCERTAINTY IN THE NATIONAL ENERGY MODELING SYSTEM .2. ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

This is the second of two papers on characterizing the uncertainty pre sent in key elements of the U.S. Department of Energy's new National E nergy Modeling System. The theory behind the assessment procedures dev eloped was described in the first paper, and the current work presents the Important numerical results and analyses of our experiments, all done as a collaborative effort between the Energy Information Administ ration the Washington Consulting Group, and the School of Information Technology and Engineering of George Mason University. The method test ing involved the three most important National Energy Modeling System submodel types, namely, linear optimization, econometric, and heuristi c or balance equations. The results of using the uncertainty procedure s on the Energy Information Administration's transportation sector dem and and petroleum market models are provided here.