THE CHALLENGE TO POLICY-MAKING OF LARGE-SCALE SYSTEMS - EVOLUTION, INSTABILITY AND STRUCTURAL-CHANGE

The intersecting global societal and natural-environmental systems are described in terms of evolution, instability and structural change. S ystems theory, particularly a number of constructs from dissipative-st ructure theory and synergetics, are applied in this description. The p olicy meaning of dynamic, reconfigurational systems change and the nee d for new kinds of policies to fit such change are emphasized. The his tory of systems support for policymaking is reviewed. The 1990s are in terpreted as representing a coalescence of several 'exhausted' evoluti onary cycles/structures including the Fourth Kondratiev, the Great Pow er hegemony, and the Newtonian paradigm of science and society. In add ition, the natural environment is interpreted as being in a state appr oaching catastrophic collapse. Accordingly, the 1990s are considered t o present an emergent window of opportunity for the development of new kinds of policies. Several recommendations for further work are made.