WAR POLITICS - AN ECONOMIC, RATIONAL-VOTER FRAMEWORK

The frequency of foreign conflict initiations in the United States is found to be significantly greater following the onset of recessions du ring a president's first term than in other periods. We develop an eco nomic theory of the political use of wars which links the election cyc le, war decisions, and economic performance consistent with the observ ed relationships among these events. An incumbent leader with an unfav orable economic performance record may initiate a war to force the lea rning of his war leadership abilities and thus salvage, with some prob ability, his reelection. This obtains despite voter rationality and in formational symmetry.