NESTED RIVALRIES - SUPERPOWER COMPETITION, ARMS TRANSFERS, AND REGIONAL CONFLICT, 1950-1990

Interstate rivalries in the Third World cannot be fully understood apa rt from the global context in which they evolve and endure. This study examines the link between the superpowers' Cold War competition and r egional rivalry by focusing specifically on arms-transfer relationship s. Poisson regression analysis highlights the interrelationships betwe en superpower competition, arms transfers, and regional rivalry in the Middle East, Persian Gulf, South Asia, and the Horn of Africa from 19 50 to 1990. Many of the observed patterns are consistent with a realis t explanation of interstate alignment and conflict, but a more holisti c theory is required to detail the mechanisms by which Third World riv alries are nested in great power competition.