CHANGES IN SUICIDE NUMBERS IN PSYCHIATRIC-HOSPITALS - AN ANALYSIS USING LOG-LINEAR TIME-TREND MODELS

We examined the hypothesis that there is an increase in the number of suicides committed by psychiatric inpatients. Data were recorded in fi ve psychiatric hospitals/departments in Baden-Wurttemberg (Germany) fo r the period between 1970 and 1992. Statistical analysis was performed by means of log-linear time-trend models that allowed us to test seve ral hypotheses, to compare their goodness of fit, and to correct for r elated factors (number of admissions, number of suicides in the genera l population). Results showed that the model of a constant number of s uicides and the model of a general increase could be rejected. The sep aration of the yearly frequencies into two parts (1970-1979 and 1980-1 992) revealed an increase in the inpatient suicide rate during the yea rs 1970-1979 and a slowly decreasing inpatient suicide rate during the years 1980-1992, especially when taking admission numbers into accoun t. Diagnostic subgroups (schizophrenia and depression) did not seem to deviate from these trends. The correction for the suicide numbers in the general population of Baden-Wurttemberg, which exhibited a remarka ble decrease in the 1980s, did not influence these results. We specula te that, after some starting difficulties, the effects of the more hum ane treatment procedures introduced in the 1970s are beginning to be f elt.