THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS WITH APPLICATION TO THE CASE OF IRAQ

In a recent article, San Ling Lam (1990) used a probit estimation tech nique to re-examine the conclusions of Hufbauer, Schott and Elliott (1 985) regarding the effectiveness of economic sanctions in achieving fo reign policy goals. While Lam's criticisms of the HSE methodology are valid, the results of the model developed here differ in lending suppo rt to the HSE conclusions. In addition, the model can be used to predi ct the probability of sanctions contributing to a peaceful resolution of the recent Middle East crisis. The predicted probabilities of succe ss in the Iraq case were above average and well above 50 percent.