RISK PERCEPTION AND SMOKING-BEHAVIOR - EMPIRICAL-EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN

This article uses survey data obtained from Taiwan to investigate cons umer perceptions of smoking risks and the linkage of these perceptions to smoking behavior. In our analysis, two equations are estimated: (1 ) risk perception, and (2) smoking probability. The simultaneity probl em in estimating risk perception and smoking probability is also consi dered. Overall, the results indicate that the risk perceptions of ciga rette smoking are substantially overestimated and that these risk perc eptions in turn, have a significantly negative effect on smoking proba bility. Also, the results suggest that the determinants of risk percep tion are consistent with the predictions of a Bayesian learning framew ork.