PREDICTING CHANGES IN PHYSICAL PERFORMANCE IN A HIGH-FUNCTIONING ELDERLY COHORT - MACARTHUR STUDIES OF SUCCESSFUL AGING

Background. Performance-based measures of physical performance were ex amined for an older cohort of relatively high-functioning men and wome n. Relationships between baseline physical performance and sociodemogr aphic and health status characteristics were also examined. Three-year pattern changes in performance are described, and sociodemographic an d health status predictors of change are investigated. Methods. A coho rt of relatively high-functioning men and women, aged 70-79, was ident ified in 1988 by subsampling from three community-based studies on the basis of physical and cognitive function. Baseline in-home assessment s included tests of physical performance and measurement of sociodemog raphic characteristics and health status. A summary measure of physica l performance was developed from tests of balance, gait, lower body st rength and coordination, and manual dexterity. In-home assessments wer e repeated at follow-up in 1991. Results. Better physical performance at baseline was more common among males, Whites, those reporting highe r income and education, and those with fewer chronic conditions. In li near regression models, declines in performance were predicted by olde r age, lower income, higher education, relative weight and blood press ure, lower peak expiratory flow, prevalent diabetes and incident healt h conditions and hospitalizations during follow-up. Improvements in pe rformance were also observed; the only significant association was wit h race (i.e., being Black). Conclusions. Declines in physical performa nce within a high-functioning cohort are predictable from sociodemogra phic and health status characteristics. The patterns of both decline a nd improvement in performance observed in this cohort suggest that old er age is not uniformly associated with declines, indicating the poten tial for effective interventions to promote more successful aging.