Decision makers receive mired signals from the investment literature o
n when it is appropriate to develop renewable energy technology substi
tutes for fossil fuels. This question is becoming more important as at
tention has become focused on climate change. With the assumptions tha
t information is revealed as time passes and the new technologies take
a long time to develop, renewable energy alternatives are move attrac
tive than they appear on the basis of the net present value criterion
that ignores option value. Option value represents the value of flexib
ility to use or discard new technologies.