PERFORMANCE, RELIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY OF TOTAL PHOSPHORUS MODELS FOR LAKES .1. DETERMINISTIC ANALYSES

Water quality problems in many lakes are closely related to the concen tration of total phosphorus. Several total phosphorus models have been developed over the years that may be suitable to study these problems . However, some models may be more appropriate than others depending o n the management objectives of the model and the mechanisms that affec t the dynamics of various forms of phosphorus in the lake. These mecha nisms include stratification, partitioning of total phosphorus into so luble and particulate forms, sediment interactions, and algal uptake a nd recycle. This paper analyzes the mechanisms, performance, and relia bility of several total phosphorus models for lakes. Recommendations a re made concerning the most appropriate model for Shagawa Lake, Minnes ota. Part II of this paper extends these procedures to include uncerta inty analysis using Monte Carlo stochastic techniques.