Di. Seo et Rp. Canale, PERFORMANCE, RELIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY OF TOTAL PHOSPHORUS MODELS FOR LAKES .1. DETERMINISTIC ANALYSES, Water research, 30(1), 1996, pp. 83-94
Water quality problems in many lakes are closely related to the concen
tration of total phosphorus. Several total phosphorus models have been
developed over the years that may be suitable to study these problems
. However, some models may be more appropriate than others depending o
n the management objectives of the model and the mechanisms that affec
t the dynamics of various forms of phosphorus in the lake. These mecha
nisms include stratification, partitioning of total phosphorus into so
luble and particulate forms, sediment interactions, and algal uptake a
nd recycle. This paper analyzes the mechanisms, performance, and relia
bility of several total phosphorus models for lakes. Recommendations a
re made concerning the most appropriate model for Shagawa Lake, Minnes
ota. Part II of this paper extends these procedures to include uncerta
inty analysis using Monte Carlo stochastic techniques.