PERFORMANCE, RELIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY OF TOTAL PHOSPHORUS MODELS FOR LAKES .2. STOCHASTIC ANALYSES

Water quality problems in lakes are frequently analyzed with the assis tance of models that simulate the dynamic behavior of total phosphorus . Part I of this series used deterministic methods to evaluate the per formance and reliability of models with different formulations and mec hanisms. Complex models are often amenable to accurate calibration but may be sensitive to uncertainties in the model coefficients and error s in measured lake data. This paper uses stochastic methods (Monto Car lo) to examine the supposition that the appropriate level of model com plexity depends on the accuracy of measured data and the uncertainty a ssociated with model coefficients. Three total phosphorus models are u sed to test the methodology for Shagawa Lake.