A SIMULATION-MODEL OF THE EPIDEMIOLOGY OF URBAN DENGUE FEVER - LITERATURE ANALYSIS, MODEL DEVELOPMENT, PRELIMINARY VALIDATION, AND SAMPLES OF SIMULATION RESULTS
Da. Focks et al., A SIMULATION-MODEL OF THE EPIDEMIOLOGY OF URBAN DENGUE FEVER - LITERATURE ANALYSIS, MODEL DEVELOPMENT, PRELIMINARY VALIDATION, AND SAMPLES OF SIMULATION RESULTS, The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 53(5), 1995, pp. 489-506
Citations number
76
Categorie Soggetti
Public, Environmental & Occupation Heath","Tropical Medicine
We have developed a pair of stochastic simulation models that describe
the daily dynamics of dengue virus transmission in the urban environm
ent. Our goal has been to construct comprehensive models that take int
o account the majority of factors known to influence dengue epidemiolo
gy. The models have an orientation toward site-specific data and are d
esigned to be used by operational programs as well as researchers. The
first model, the container-inhabiting mosquito simulation model (CIMS
iM), a weather-driven dynamic Life-table model of container-inhabiting
mosquitoes such as Aedes aegypti, provides inputs to the transmission
model, the dengue simulation model (DENSiM); a description and valida
tion of the entomology model was published previously. The basis of th
e transmission model is the simulation of a human population growing i
n response to country- and age-specific birth and death rates. An acco
unting of individual serologies is maintained by type of dengue virus,
reflecting infection and birth to seropositive mothers. Daily estimat
es of adult mosquito survival, gonotrophic development, and the weight
and number of emerging females from the CIMSiM are used to create the
biting mosquito population in the DENSiM. The survival and emergence
values determine the size of the population while the rate of gonotrop
hic development and female weight estimates influence biting frequency
. Temperature and titer of virus in the human influences the extrinsic
incubation period; titer may also influence the probability of transf
er of virus from human to mosquito. The infection model within the DEN
SiM accounts for the development of virus within individuals and its p
assage between both populations. As in the case of the CIMSiM, the spe
cific values used for any particular phenomenon are on menus where the
y can be readily changed. It is possible to simulate concurrent epidem
ics involving different serotypes. To provide a modicum of validation
and to demonstrate the parameterization process for a specific locatio
n, we compare simulation results with reports on the nature of epidemi
cs and seroprevalence of antibody in Honduras in low-lying coastal urb
anizations and Tegucigalpa following the initial introduction of dengu
e-1 in 1978 into Central America. We conclude with some additional exa
mples of simulation results to give an indication of the types of ques
tions that can be investigated with the models.