PROGNOSTIC VALIDITY OF SHORT-TERM ABSTINENCE IN ALCOHOLISM

A demonstrated period of abstinence is often viewed as a good prognost ic sign in alcoholism. For example, short-term abstinence is one facto r often considered important as a selection criteria for alcoholics wh o are being evaluated as liver transplant candidates. However, the pro gnostic validity of short-term abstinence is unclear. We evaluated the effects of 3 and 6 months of abstinence on readmission rates in a ser ies of 299 alcoholics following discharge from inpatient treatment. Re admission rates were stratified using a 3-factor model of alcoholism s everity. This 3-factor model defined groups with 1-year readmission ra tes, ranging from 15.8% to 62.7%. Short-term abstinence did not have s trong effects on readmission rates for the most severe alcoholics, nor did short-term abstinence produce clinically significant reduction fo r readmission rates for the least severe alcoholics. We conclude that short-term abstinence has minimal effect on prognosis for alcoholics w ith various levels of baseline severity.