CLIMATE-CHANGE AND THE INCIDENCE OF FOOD POISONING IN ENGLAND AND WALES

In recent years there have been several spells of high temperatures pr oviding analogues for the conditions that might become more common as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect. Statistical models were de veloped of the relationship between the monthly incidence of food pois oning and temperatures and these were then used to provide estimates o f the possible effects of future warmer summers. Routinely collected d ata on the number of reported cases of food poisoning were analysed fo r the years 1982-1991. Regression analysis was used to establish the r elationship between the monthly incidence of food poisoning and temper atures of the same and the previous month. Published scenarios for fut ure temperatures were applied to these statistical models to provide e stimates of the possible impacts of warmer conditions. The monthly inc idence of food poisoning was found to be significantly associated with the temperature of the same and of the previous month with the latter having the stronger effect. Using published data on the relationship between reported and actual numbers of cases of food poisoning, it is estimated that annually there might be an additional 179 000 cases of food poisoning by the year 2050 as a result of climate change. The obs erved relationship with the same month's temperature underlines the ne ed for improvements in storage, preparation and hygiene close to the p oint of consumption. However, there was a much stronger relationship w ith the temperature of the previous month, indicating the importance o f conditions earlier in the food production process. Improvements in a reas such as animal husbandry and slaughtering may also be necessary t o avoid the adverse effects of a warmer climate.