ACUTE-RENAL-FAILURE IN THE ELDERLY - ASSESSMENT OF PROGNOSTIC FACTORS

We studied 45 patients, aged 50 years and older, with acute renal fail ure during their admission. We assessed the chance oi death using a lo gistic regression stepwise model, with 16 variables. The mean age of t he group was 68,4 +/- 10 years; 13 patients were hemodialised and the global mortality was 37,8 %. Mortality was not increased in hemodialys ed patients. The statistical model used was: Omega = 0.271 - 0.197 (d ays of admission) + 7.139 (mechanical ventilation). In this model the chance of death is computed as: p = e(Omega)/(7 + e(Omega)) It predic ted death with a a 94, 1 % sensitivity, 92,9 specificity and 93,3 % pr edictive value. Our model was compared with 2 other models (Corwin and Liano), previously described. We conclude that it is feasible to pred ict mortality in elderly people with acute renal failure using a stati stical model.