ASSESSMENT OF THE FUTURE-IMPACT ON HEALTH OF A PROPOSED FREEWAY DEVELOPMENT

This paper estimates the effect on health of traffic injury and air an d noise pollution from a proposed inner-suburban freeway in Melbourne. We estimated levels of these health problems for the year 2001 using traffic flow projections for the presence and absence of the freeway. For noise and air pollution, it was necessary to use pollutant levels as proxies for levels of associated diseases and health states. In 200 1, there will be an increase in all traffic movements in the study are a but a decrease of 100 000 vehicle-kilometres per day on major roads, excluding the bypass. This is associated with a projected reduction i n the study area of about 100 to 110 injuries of all types. The major air pollution problems associated with motor vehicle emissions are ozo ne and respirable particulates; sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and carbon monoxide are unlikely to pose a health hazard. Levels of respir able particulates, lead and polycylic aromatic hydrocarbons are genera lly low. There should be no detectable increase in average or maximum noise levels adjacent to the freeway if attenuation measures are emplo yed. A reduction in average and maximum noise levels should occur on s ome main roads in the affected area. The effects of the freeway on the area should be favourable to health, with reduction in traffic injury and noise-related health problems outweighing any risk of a small det erioration in respiratory health associated with atmospheric pollution .