PROSPECTIVE EVALUATION OF A MODEL OF RISK FOR HIV-INFECTION AMONG INJECTING DRUG-USERS

Data on 3016 out-of-treatment injecting drug users (IDUs) were analyze d in order to replicate findings from an earlier study on risk factors for HIV infection (Iguchi et al., 1992) and evaluate a model for esti mating probability of infection. Logistic regression analyses yielded a set of risk factors highly consistent with previous findings. A logi stic function was used to estimate subjects' probabilities of infectio n, and these estimates were strongly correlated with actual HIV preval ence in both the original and current samples. The current study repre sents a successful replication of earlier findings and supports the va lidity of the risk model.