GLOBAL TUBERCULOSIS INCIDENCE AND MORTALITY DURING 1990-2000

Forecasts of tuberculosis morbidity and mortality are presented for th e decade 1990-99. An estimated 88 million new cases of tuberculosis, o f which 8 million will be attributable to HIV infection, will occur in the world during the decade; 30 million people are predicted to die o f tuberculosis in the same period, including 2.9 million attributable to HIV infection. The number of new tuberculosis cases occurring each year is predicted to increase from 7.5 million (143 cases per 100 000) in 1990 to 8.8 million (152 per 100 000) in 1995 and 10.2 million (16 3 per 100 000) in the year 2000. In 1990, 2.5 million persons were est imated to have died of tuberculosis; at the same level of availability of treatment, it is predicted that 3.0 million tuberculosis deaths wi ll occur in 1995 and 3.5 million in 2000. Demographic factors, such as population growth and changes in the age structure of populations, wi ll account for 79.5% of the predicted increases in new cases. Age-spec ific incidence rates in sub-Saharan Africa are increasing due to the H IV epidemic and will account for the remaining 20.5% of the forecast i ncrease in new cases. In WHO's South-East Asian Region and in Central and South America the age-specific incidence rates are expected to fal l during 1990-2000, but at a slower rate than in previous years becaus e of the expected increase in HIV seroprevalence. In the Western Pacif ic and Eastern Mediterranean Regions the age-specific incidence rates are expected to fall during 1990-2000 because of the effects of interv ention strategies, but the total number of new cases will continue to increase until the end of the decade because of population growth.