CARBON MITIGATION SCENARIOS FOR MEXICAN FORESTS - METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS AND RESULTS

This paper examines three future scenarios for carbon emissions and se questration in Mexican forests. The first is a Reference scenario that incorporates low and high emission estimates derived from different a ssumptions of deforestation rates in Mexico; the second is a Policy sc enario that incorporates seven carbon mitigation options for reducing future net car bon emissions from the forest sector; and the third is a Technical Potential scenario that shows the maximum technically-feas ible carbon sequestration achievable in Mexican forests by the year 20 30. A consistent method for estimating the net unit carbon sequestrati on associated with different carbon mitigation options in the forest s ector provides the basis for estimating the carbon implications of the different scenarios. The study suggests that cumulative carbon seques tration ranges from 2.2 to 4.4 gigatons of cal bon (GtonC) by the year 2030, depending on the scenario. Realizing this carbon sequestration potential could significantly offset emissions from the energy sector. Management of native temperate and tropical forests, and restoration of degraded forest lands, particularly when linked to energy plantatio ns, offer the most promising alternatives for carbon sequestration.