Pj. Montiel et Jd. Ostry, THE PARALLEL MARKET PREMIUM - IS IT A RELIABLE INDICATOR OF REAL EXCHANGE-RATE MISALIGNMENT IN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES, Staff papers - International Monetary Fund, 41(1), 1994, pp. 55-75
It is often argued that the parallel market premium is a useful indica
tor of real exchange rate misalignment in developing countries. The em
pirical evidence, however, does not suggest a robust correlation betwe
en these two endogenous variables that is independent of the nature of
economic shocks and various structural relationships in the economy.
This paper analyzes the reliability of the parallel market premium as
an indicator of real exchange rate misalignment. It suggests that one
should exercise caution in drawing inferences about the sign and magni
tude of real exchange rate misalignment from the premium.