CLIMATIC RISK TO PEANUT PRODUCTION - A SIMULATION STUDY FOR NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

A dynamic peanut simulation model was used to quantify climatic risk t o peanut production in Northern Australia. We demonstrate how district yield information can be usefully combined with simulation results to assess objectively impact and causes of climatic variability on produ ction. Our analysis shows that the rapid expansion of the peanut indus try in the region corresponded with relatively stable, above-average y ields caused by that period in the historical record having above-aver age and less variable summer rainfall. During this period the timing a nd amount of rainfall was such that yields higher than average could o ften be achieved, and harvests were only rarely interrupted by prolong ed wet periods. These conditions created unrealistically high expectat ions of yields by producers, and when the climate was more variable du ring the 1980s, it was perceived as a greater deviation from the norm than justified by the long-term record.