LABNOTES FROM THE JEREMIAH EXPERIMENT - HOPE FOR A SUSTAINABLE TRANSITION

These notes examine a case of perceived crisis after World War II-the rise, fall, and renewal of concern with the growth of population, begi nning with landmark publications by Vogt (1948) and Brown (1954). Part of a larger study that will eventually address other neo-Malthusian c oncerns, the project seeks insight from these failed prophesies into a future sustainability transition. In retrospect, the perception of a population crisis was based on the unprecedented growth in population. The crisis seemed to ameliorate as evidence that a transition from ma ny births and low life expectancy to fewer births and longer life was well underway in the world. The population growth rate peaked in 1962- 1963 and then began a slow decline. Development, family planning effor ts, and culture all contributed to the decline, with development playi ng the major role. The influence of the population Jeremiahs was large in the industrialized countries, significant in some developing count ries, and absent in others, including China. In a tradition ever since Malthus, the concern with population growth persists, fueled by evide nce for a slowing of the transition and increased concern with the env ironment. Prospects for a sustainability transition to meet the needs of a doubled population are evaluated by emphasizing long-term trends in population, energy, and materials. Three alternative visions of the transition are examined with the expectation that none of them will s uffice. If a successful transition occurs, and success is in doubt, it will represent an amalgam of favorable, but not well-understood, long -term trends and intentional action.