ESTIMATING EYE CARE WORKFORCE SUPPLY AND REQUIREMENTS

Purpose: To estimate the workforce supply and requirements for eye car e in the United States, Methods: Three models were constructed for ana lysis: supply of providers, public health need for eye care, and deman d (utilization) for eye care. Ophthalmologists, other physicians, and optometrists were included in the models, Public health need was deter mined by applying condition-specific prevalence and incidence rates fr om population-based and other epidemiologic studies. Demand was determ ined by use of national databases, such as the National Ambulatory Car e Survey, National Hospital Discharge Survey, and Medicare Part B, Tim e requirements for care were obtained through a stratified sample surv ey of the membership of the American Academy of Ophthalmology, Results : Under modeling assumptions that use a work-time ratio of one between optometrists and ophthalmologists and between specialist and generali st ophthalmologists, a significant excess of eye care providers exists relative to both public health need and demand, Changes in the work-t ime ratio, work-hours per year per provider, care patterns for the sam e condition, or other factors could significantly reduce or eliminate the surplus relative to need, Conclusion: If optometrists are the pref erred primary eye care provider, ophthalmologists would be in excess u nder all demand scenarios and all need scenarios where the optometrist to ophthalmologist work-time ratio is greater than 0.6, No excess of ophthalmologists would exist if ophthalmologists are the preferred pri mary eye care provider. Data on the appropriate work time ratio will h elp refine estimates of the imbalance between supply and requirements.