ON THE UBIQUITY OF DRUG SELLING AMONG YOUTHFUL OFFENDERS IN WASHINGTON, DC, 1985-1991 - AGE, PERIOD, OR COHORT EFFECT

We present a multiple-cohort analysis of rates of participation in dru g offenses versus other crime in an urban sample, based on official ch arge data on young adults from the Pretrial Services Agency in the Dis trict of Columbia for the years 1985 to 1991. We make lower-bound esti mates of how many individuals from particular population groups residi ng in the District are involved in drug-related criminal activities, e xamine trends in drug and nondrug charges in Washington, D.C., and dis entangle the age, cohort, and period effects in the variation in parti cipation in drug offenses across multiple birth cohorts in the city. W e estimate that up to 30% of the young, black male population of the D istrict of Columbia were charged with drug distribution during this ti me. Charge rates for drug distribution activities appear to peak aroun d age 24, decreasing slowly thereafter. Large and nonlinear period eff ects were observed for all drug-related charge rates, while increasing linear period effects were found for nondrug misdemeanors. Cohort eff ects in drug-related charge rates were also observed. Levels of partic ipation in drug distribution charge rates were lower for order cohorts , while the cohort share with a drug possession charge declined for yo unger cohorts. However, when age and period effects are included in th e models, these cohort effects are muted or disappear, except in the c ase of nondrug misdemeanors.