SANDANG BU GUOBAN AND POLITICAL STABILITY IN TAIWAN - THE RELEVANCY OF ELECTORAL SYSTEM AND SUBETHNIC CLEAVAGE

The focus of Taiwan's 1995 legislative election was on the prospect th at for the first time in the history of the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan, the ruling Kuomintang (KMT, Nationalist Party of China) might not enjoy its majority status in the Legislative Yuan. In the end, th e KMT survived and was able to maintain its majority by three seats. I will nor address the process nor the result of this election. Instead I will concentrate on the ramifications of sandang bu guoban (SDBGB) or ''three parties and no majority,'' a campaign slogan of the New Par ty (NP). Since early 1995, when the NP put up this slogan, it has led to many scholarly debates, caused some political controversies, and pr ompted a flurry of strategies to achieve and counterstrategies to avoi d this end. Most of these discussions concern whether SDBGB would resu lt in a coalition government and hence political instability. This art icle does address the issue of political instability. It is, however, based on two different but relevant perspectives: the nature of the el ectoral system and the existence of subethnic cleavages. We believe th at SDBGB is not merely a campaign strategy for the NP; it actually ref lects the political and societal realities of the ROC on Taiwan.