CLUSTERS OF IMPAIRED NORMAL ELDERLY DO NOT DECLINE COGNITIVELY IN 3 TO 5 YEARS

The ability of clusters of psychometric profiles to predict cognitive decline 3 to 5 years later was examined. Using Ward's method, research ers conducted cluster analysis of age- and education-corrected Mayo Co gnitive Factor Scale (MCFS) scores obtained at first evaluation for 37 6 normal elderly. Results revealed 4 of 16 cluster profiles were predi cted to represent at-risk status for future cognitive decline; 258 of the original sample completed psychometric reassessment. Membership in an at-risk cluster did not powerfully predict subsequent medical eval uation of cognitive or psychiatric disorder or status as lost to follo w-up. Repeated measures analyses of variance of MCFS scores showed no differential decline in learning or memory between normal and at-risk clusters. Thus, in a nonclinical sample, relative cognitive impairment s are not powerfully predictive of future cognitive decline.