EVALUATING IMPROVEMENTS IN ELECTRIC UTILITY RELIABILITY AT BRITISH-COLUMBIA HYDRO

This paper employs multiattribute value assessment and risk analysis t o evaluate the benefits of four alternatives to improve electrical sys tem reliability in British Columbia. A multiattribute value model is c onstructed as a cost-equivalent function, based on value judgments pro vided by a group of senior system planners and two senior vice preside nts from BC Hydro. Using data drawn from the utility's service records and probabilities elicited from the utility's technical specialists, a risk analysis is developed to estimate the magnitude and duration of outages associated with the various alternatives. The value model and probabilities are combined to estimate the expected equivalent costs of outages over time, for the four alternatives. The influence of this analysis on BC Hydro's transmission system planning is also discussed .