BIRTH SPACING DYNAMICS IN CHINA - THE CASES OF HEBEI AND SHAANXI PROVINCES

Even as fertility has declined in China in the last several decades, t he first and second birth intervals have become shorter over time and the probability of having a second child has increased since the late 1970s. This increase in the probability of conception seems to be cont radictory to the Chinese government's birth planning strategy which ex plicitly stresses timing and parity. Using retrospective survey report s from 1985 in Hebei and Shaanxi provinces, the study explored this pa radox. The study revealed several findings: (1) government interventio n, especially the 'one-child' policy of the late 1970s, had a strong, unexpected influence on early conception in China; (2) the timing and probability of having a first birth were associated with macrosocial f orces. and familial relationships; and (3) the timing and probability of having a second birth were associated with biosocial, familial as w ell as macro-social characteristics.