Study of Langmuir collapse thresholds shows that they have little pola
rization dependence and that moving packets have the lowest thresholds
in the undamped case. However, incorporation of damping into the dens
ity response inhibits collapse of packets moving at more than a small
fraction of the sound speed. Investigation of energy transfer to packe
ts localized in density wells-the nucleation process-shows that at mos
t a few trapped states can exist and that energy transfer is most effe
ctive when there is a single barely-trapped state. Coupled with an arg
ument that closely packed wave packets have lower collapse thresholds,
this argument yields an estimate of the number density of localized n
ucleating states in a turbulent plasma. It also leads to a simple and
direct semiquantitative estimate of the collapse threshold. All these
results are in accord with previous numerical simulations incorporatin
g ion-sound damping, which show a preponderance of slow-moving or stat
ionary packets with little or no intrinsic polarization dependence of
thresholds. Likewise, the number densities obtained are in good agreem
ent with simulation values, and the simple estimate of the threshold i
s semiquantitatively correct. The extent of the agreement supports the
nucleation scenario with close-packed nucleation sites in the turbule
nt state. (C) 1996 American Institute of Physics.