ADJUSTMENTS OF PUBLIC PENSION SCHEMES IN 12 INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES - POSSIBLE ANSWERS TO POPULATION AGING

This article analyses the impact of population dynamics on future publ ic pension expenditure in twelve industrialized countries. Whereas pre vious studies have mainly emphasized ageing effects, this study looks into the consequences of changing marital status structures as well. O ld age pensions, disability, and survivor's pensions are investigated. Various sets of demographic and pension scenarios are formulated for the projections, dealing with changes in demographic, labour force and pension system variables in the future. The analyses show that there can be no adequate demographic response to rising pension costs caused by population ageing at the horizon 2030. Neither an increase in fert ility nor an inflow of migrants can rejuvenate national populations, u nless fertility and/or migration reach unrealistically high levels. In stead, substantial reductions of the public pension burden have to be sought in socioeconomic measures.