DURATION DEPENDENCE IN MIGRATION BEHAVIOR - CUMULATIVE INERTIA VERSUSSTOCHASTIC CHANGE

In this paper a new theoretical framework and supporting empirical evi dence on the relationship between movement probabilities and length of stay are presented. Individuals' evaluations of the relative value of alternative locations are assumed to evolve stochastically, with a po ssible tendency either to cumulative inertia or to cumulative stress. In general this yields a nonmonotonic duration function, with probabil ities of movement starting at zero, rising and then falling-a pattern consistent with either cumulative tendency, or neither. A version of t he model fitted to data on household movement intentions, from the UK General Household Survey, confirms the hypothesised form of this funct ion and indicates a dominance of cumulative stress over cumulative ine rtia.